Lyngby 1–2 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Lyngby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Midtjylland

L. Sandgrav 73'

A. Şimşir 90+6'

Franculino Djú 64'

8/16/2024

Superliga · Round 5Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lyngby37%

×Draw25%

FC Midtjylland39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyngbyExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.48

Lyngby

1.44

FC Midtjylland

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

1.19

creates per match

1.44

1.53

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lyngby

1.19

FC Midtjylland

1.44

allows per match

Lyngby

1.53

FC Midtjylland

1.70

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Lyngby-0.19scores less

FC Midtjylland+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw

61%

Lyngby or FC Midtjylland

75%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

63%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+

17%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals

76%

Lyngby 2+ goals

42%

Lyngby 3+ goals

18%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

77%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

43%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)

49%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 10 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.70 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.19 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Midtjylland attack 1.44 + Lyngby defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lyngby scores more

37%

level

25%

FC Midtjylland scores more

39%

FC Midtjylland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

58

A. Şimşir

FC Midtjylland · M

8.3

Match Events

21'

J. Andersson← C. Sørensen

25'

Emiliano Martínez

60'

M. Krüger-Johnsen← E. Chilufya

61'

O. Sørensen← D. Castillo

61'

M. Bech← Juninho

64'

Franculino Djú↳ A. Gabriel

71'

W. Kumado← T. Storm

71'

M. Abubakari← S. Magnússon

73'

L. Sandgrav↳ M. Jensen

80'

G. Fraulo← F. Gytkjær

80'

M. Rømer← J. Amon

84'

A. Kamara← O. Brynhildsen

90'

Casper Winther

90+6'

A. Şimşir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyngbyFC

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots23

1.01Expected Goals (xG)2.22

4Corners6

8Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots23

2On Target6

5Off Target10

1Blocked7

5Inside Box18

3Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

350Total Passes524

281Accurate Passes456

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1