FC Midtjylland 2–1 Lyngby: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lyngby

A. Gabriel 47'

D. Osorio 10'

A. Guðjohnsen 23'

10/27/2023

Superliga · Round 13MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Midtjylland46%

×Draw24%

Lyngby30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.28

FC Midtjylland

1.64

Lyngby

1.28

FC Midtjylland creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.70

creates per match

1.17

1.39

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.70

Lyngby

1.17

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.39

Lyngby

1.57

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.65scores more

Lyngby-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

70%

FC Midtjylland or Lyngby

76%

Draw or Lyngby

54%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

24%

Lyngby wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

81%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

49%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

23%

Lyngby 1+ goals

72%

Lyngby 2+ goals

37%

Lyngby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

60%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

Lyngby away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.70 + Lyngby defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lyngby attack 1.17 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

46%

level

24%

Lyngby scores more

30%

FC Midtjylland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Gabriel

FC Midtjylland · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

D. Osorio↳ A. Gabriel

22'

Gylfi Sigurðsson

23'

A. Guðjohnsen↳ F. Gytkjær

47'

A. Gabriel

62'

O. Brynhildsen← Franculino Djú

62'

A. Şimşir← D. Osorio

62'

T. Storm← W. Kumado

63'

C. Winther← M. Rømer

77'

H. Dalsgaard← A. Gabriel

77'

T. Chukwuani← S. Magnússon

77'

J. Amon← G. Sigurðsson

90+3'

Casper Winther

90+1'

A. Gigović← A. Rømer

90+2'

N. Dyhr← Paulinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCLyngby

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots7

7Corners2

12Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots7

5On Target5

10Off Target1

7Blocked1

19Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes364

356Accurate Passes247

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

8Offsides4