Lyngby 2–1 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Lyngby

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Midtjylland

S. Magnússon 32'

T. Chukwuani 2'

S. Gartenmann 13'

5/7/2023

Superliga · Relegation Round - 6Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lyngby35%

×Draw25%

FC Midtjylland40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyngbyExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.53

Lyngby

1.42

FC Midtjylland

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.13

creates per match

1.44

1.63

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lyngby

1.13

FC Midtjylland

1.44

allows per match

Lyngby

1.63

FC Midtjylland

1.70

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Lyngby-0.22scores less

FC Midtjylland+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw

60%

Lyngby or FC Midtjylland

75%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

65%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+

16%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals

76%

Lyngby 2+ goals

41%

Lyngby 3+ goals

17%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

78%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

45%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)

47%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.70 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.13 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Midtjylland attack 1.44 + Lyngby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lyngby scores more

35%

level

25%

FC Midtjylland scores more

40%

FC Midtjylland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Magnússon

Lyngby · M

7.6

Match Events

2'

T. Chukwuani↳ K. Finnsson

13'

S. Gartenmann↳ G. Isaksen

32'

S. Magnússon↳ L. Hey

40'

Petur Knudsen

46'

B. Hämäläinen← A. Bjelland

46'

A. Gigović← O. Sørensen

52'

Juninho

69'

E. Chilufya← Júnior Brumado

72'

S. Koch← P. Knudsen

73'

F. Heiselberg← A. Şimşir

73'

78'

84'

87'

90+2'

M. Kristensen← F. Gytkjær

90+1'

V. Bak← H. Dalsgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyngbyFC

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots15

2Corners4

16Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target2

2Off Target10

2Blocked3

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

31%Possession69%

207Total Passes464

118Accurate Passes369

57%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1