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FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby — Superliga 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lyngby
Lyngby
A. Buksa 33' (pen)
2/16/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Midtjylland46%
×Draw24%
Lyngby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
1.64
Lyngby
1.28

FC Midtjylland creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
1.70
Lyngby
1.17

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.39
Lyngby
1.57

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.65scores more
Lyngby-0.60scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
70%
FC Midtjylland or Lyngby
76%
Draw or Lyngby
54%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
24%
Lyngby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
81%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
49%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
23%
Lyngby 1+ goals
72%
Lyngby 2+ goals
37%
Lyngby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
60%
Lyngby (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

Lyngby away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.70 + Lyngby defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lyngby attack 1.17 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
46%
level
24%
Lyngby scores more
30%

FC Midtjylland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. BechFC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland · D
7.9

Match Events

33'
A. BuksaPenalty
45+1'
Peter Langhoff
46'
E. Chilufya← Franculino Djú
58'
L. Sandgrav← C. Winther
58'
J. Amon← S. Magnússon
63'
A. Şimşir← M. Krüger-Johnsen
63'
D. Castillo← D. Osorio
71'
P. Bravo← Dani Silva
71'
A. Andersson← O. Buur
83'
G. Fraulo← M. Hebo
84'
K. Mbabu← V. Bak Jensen
84'
A. Vendelbo← J. Cornelius
89'
Edward Chilufya
90+3'
Pedro Bravo
90+5'
Adam Vendelbo

Possession

50%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCLyngby
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots15
1.44Expected Goals (xG)1.23
2Corners4
13Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots15
2On Target0
3Off Target12
3Blocked3
7Inside Box7
1Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
457Total Passes467
359Accurate Passes365
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Superliga: FC Midtjylland 1–0 Lyngby

FC Midtjylland beat Lyngby 1-0 in Superliga on February 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Buksa (33' pen).

FC Midtjylland controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.