Luton 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

E. Adebayo 55'

G. Evans 90+5'

2/23/2021

Championship · Round 32Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton44%

×Draw27%

Millwall29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Luton

1.36

Millwall

1.04

Luton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

1.39

creates per match

1.15

0.93

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Millwall

1.33

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw

71%

Luton or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

56%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Millwall wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

39%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Millwall 1+ goals

65%

Millwall 2+ goals

28%

Millwall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

61%

Millwall (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.33 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Millwall attack 1.15 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luton scores more

44%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

29%

Luton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

E. Adebayo

Luton · F

7.5

Match Events

14'

Shaun Hutchinson

50'

Ryan Tunnicliffe

55'

E. Adebayo

61'

M. Smith← T. Bradshaw

61'

M. Bennett← B. Thompson

64'

G. Rea← J. Morrell

75'

P. Ruddock← T. Ince

75'

T. Burey← J. Böðvarsson

75'

S. Williams← R. Woods

76'

Simon Sluga

83'

L. Berry← R. Tunnicliffe

84'

H. Cornick← E. Adebayo

84'

J. Collins← K. Dewsbury-Hall

90+5'

G. Evans↳ M. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonMillwall

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots14

1Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

454Total Passes387

328Accurate Passes266

72%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1