Luton 3–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Middlesbrough

H. Cornick 62'

E. Adebayo 60'

S. Bradley 57'

J. Coburn 15'

11/2/2021

Championship · Round 16Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton40%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Luton

1.31

Middlesbrough

1.15

Luton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 63 away

1.39

creates per match

1.37

0.93

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Middlesbrough

1.23

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw

67%

Luton or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

60%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

18%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

68%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

32%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

55%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more

40%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

33%

Luton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Bradley

Luton · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

30'

31'

39'

55'

F. Onyedinma← D. Potts

57'

S. Bradley↳ J. Bree

59'

Josh Coburn

60'

E. Adebayo↳ P. Ruddock

62'

H. Cornick

68'

D. Watmore← A. Šporar

70'

Fred Onyedinma

74'

Duncan Watmore

77'

J. Lea Siliki← M. Crooks

79'

Henri Lansbury

81'

D. Hylton← H. Cornick

83'

W. Kokolo← O. Hernández

89'

C. Jerome← E. Adebayo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonMiddlesbrough

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots9

5Corners0

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target4

4Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

315Total Passes325

208Accurate Passes219

66%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Championship: Luton 3–1 Middlesbrough

Luton beat Middlesbrough 3-1 in Championship on November 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Coburn (15'), S. Bradley (57'), E. Adebayo (60'), H. Cornick (62').

Luton controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Luton 3–1 Middlesbrough