Luton 1–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Middlesbrough

G. Rea 19'

D. Watmore 21'

5/1/2021

Championship · Round 45Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton40%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.15

Luton

1.30

Middlesbrough

1.15

Luton creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 64 away

1.39

creates per match

1.37

0.93

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Middlesbrough

1.22

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw

67%

Luton or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

60%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

18%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

68%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

32%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

55%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more

40%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

33%

Luton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Luton · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

G. Rea

21'

D. Watmore

72'

G. Moncur← H. Cornick

75'

Glen Rea

83'

S. Nombe← J. Collins

83'

J. Coburn← Y. Bolasie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonMiddlesbrough

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots9

10Corners5

20Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target1

7Off Target2

1Blocked6

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

412Total Passes249

323Accurate Passes145

78%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2