Luton 1–0 Hull City: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

M. McGuinness 33'

11/23/2024

Championship · Round 16Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Luton47%

×Draw27%

Hull City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.00

Luton

1.43

Hull City

1.00

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

1.31

creates per match

1.12

0.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Luton

1.31

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Luton

0.88

Hull City

1.55

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Luton-0.31scores less

Hull City+0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw

74%

Luton or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

23%

Hull City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

76%

Luton 2+ goals

42%

Luton 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

63%

Hull City 2+ goals

26%

Hull City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

64%

Hull City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Hull City defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hull City attack 1.12 + Luton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more

47%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. McGuinness

Luton · D

7.9

Match Events

22'

33'

37'

39'

56'

L. Walsh← S. Baptiste

58'

R. Longman← G. Puerta

66'

D. Hashioka← R. Burke

66'

72'

85'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonHull

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots14

0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.55

9Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target2

2Off Target7

3Blocked5

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

269Total Passes507

190Accurate Passes424

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0