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Hull City vs Luton — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Luton
Luton
H. Lansbury 44'
A. Jones 6' (OG)
9/30/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Hull City47%
×Draw26%
Luton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.46
Luton
1.05

Hull City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Luton
1.59

finishing

Hull City-0.10scores less
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
73%
Hull City or Luton
74%
Draw or Luton
53%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
23%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
77%
Hull City 2+ goals
43%
Hull City 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
65%
Luton 2+ goals
28%
Luton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
63%
Luton (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 49 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luton attack 0.85 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hull City scores more
47%
level
26%
Luton scores more
27%

Hull City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. CoyleHull CityHull City · D
7.7

Match Events

6'
A. JonesOwn goal
27'
Elijah Adebayo
35'
Ryan Woods
44'
H. Lansbury
46'
G. Osho← R. Burke
56'
James Bree
59'
G. Docherty← Ó. Estupiñán
59'
C. Christie← D. Pelkas
67'
Carlton Morris
71'
D. Sinik← R. Longman
71'
J. Seri← R. Woods
76'
P. Mpanzu← H. Lansbury
76'
C. Jerome← C. Morris
90+5'
F. Onyedinma← J. Clark
90'
H. Cornick← E. Adebayo

Possession

70%Hull

Shots

11Hull

Pass accuracy

59%Hull

Statistics

HullLuton
Overview
70%Possession30%
11Total Shots10
7Corners6
11Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots10
0On Target5
7Off Target3
4Blocked2
3Inside Box7
8Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
511Total Passes216
390Accurate Passes112
76%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 0–2 Luton

Luton beat Hull City 2-0 in Championship on September 30, 2022.

Goals: A. Jones (6' o.g.), H. Lansbury (44').

Hull City controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.