Luton 0–0 Hull City: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

5/8/2023

Championship · Round 46Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%

×Draw26%

Hull City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Luton

1.46

Hull City

1.03

Luton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

1.39

creates per match

1.12

0.93

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Hull City

1.54

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

73%

Luton or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

23%

Hull City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

77%

Luton 2+ goals

43%

Luton 3+ goals

18%

Hull City 1+ goals

64%

Hull City 2+ goals

28%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

64%

Hull City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hull City attack 1.12 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more

47%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

27%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Traoré

Hull City · F

7.7

Match Events

46'

R. Burke← G. Osho

54'

E. Thorpe← F. Onyedinma

55'

H. Lansbury← J. Clark

58'

Henri Lansbury

60'

J. Johnson← A. Doughty

62'

J. Seri← X. Simons

63'

R. Longman← O. Tufan

70'

L. Berry← J. Taylor

84'

C. Jones← A. Sayyadmanesh

84'

H. Wood← A. Traoré

86'

W. Jarvis← H. Vaughan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonHull

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots9

7Corners6

11Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots9

2On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

2Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

374Total Passes597

313Accurate Passes514

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2