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Hull City vs Luton — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Luton
Luton
T. Eaves 90+2'
J. Bree 72'
H. Cornick 56'
E. Adebayo 9'
3/19/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Hull City47%
×Draw26%
Luton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.46
Luton
1.05

Hull City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Luton
1.59

finishing

Hull City-0.10scores less
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
73%
Hull City or Luton
74%
Draw or Luton
53%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
23%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
77%
Hull City 2+ goals
43%
Hull City 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
65%
Luton 2+ goals
28%
Luton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
63%
Luton (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 49 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luton attack 0.85 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hull City scores more
47%
level
26%
Luton scores more
27%

Hull City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. AdebayoLutonLuton · F
8.2

Match Events

9'
E. Adebayo↳ A. Bell
11'
Jordan Clark
25'
Peter Kioso
51'
P. Mpanzu← L. Berry
52'
T. Lockyer← P. Kioso
56'
H. Cornick↳ E. Adebayo
66'
T. Huddlestone← G. Docherty
66'
A. Sayyadmanesh← R. Smallwood
71'
Tom Huddlestone
72'
J. Bree
75'
M. Forss← R. Longman
75'
C. Jerome← H. Cornick
86'
George Honeyman
90+2'
T. Eaves↳ M. Forss

Possession

59%Hull

Shots

16Hull

Pass accuracy

54%Hull

Statistics

HullLuton
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots11
6Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots11
4On Target5
9Off Target2
3Blocked4
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
467Total Passes330
359Accurate Passes215
77%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Luton

Luton beat Hull City 3-1 in Championship on March 19, 2022.

Goals: E. Adebayo (9'), H. Cornick (56'), J. Bree (72'), T. Eaves (90+2').

Hull City controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.