Luton 1–0 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

S. Baptiste 90'

4/26/2025

Championship · Round 45Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Luton39%

×Draw27%

Coventry34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Luton

1.29

Coventry

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

1.34

creates per match

1.52

0.87

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Luton

1.34

Coventry

1.52

allows per match

Luton

0.87

Coventry

1.23

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.47scores less

Coventry+0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

66%

Luton or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

61%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

72%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

70%

Coventry 2+ goals

34%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

53%

Coventry (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.23 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.34 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Coventry attack 1.52 + Luton defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more

39%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

34%

Luton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

S. Baptiste

Luton · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

Jay Dasilva

15'

J. Bidwell← T. Sakamoto

45+5'

Luis Binks

46'

K. Naismith← C. Makosso

57'

J. Clark← Lamine Fanne

58'

63'

65'

68'

69'

69'

78'

84'

86'

86'

87'

T. Chong← M. Alli

87'

R. Burke← T. Mengi

90+2'

B. Thomas-Asante← L. Binks

90'

S. Baptiste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonCoventry

Overview

67%Possession33%

23Total Shots3

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.14

18Corners2

9Fouls16

Shots

23Total Shots3

8On Target0

9Off Target2

6Blocked1

12Inside Box2

11Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

418Total Passes221

343Accurate Passes134

82%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

1.62Goals Prevented1.62

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Luton vs Coventry

Luton beat Coventry 1-0 in Championship on April 26, 2025.

Goals: S. Baptiste (90').

Luton controlled possession (67%) and registered 23 shots to 3.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs Coventry