Luton 2–2 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Coventry

C. Morris 15', 4'

G. Hamer 61'

V. Gyökeres 11'

9/14/2022

Championship · Round 10Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton39%

×Draw27%

Coventry35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Luton

1.31

Coventry

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

1.39

creates per match

1.52

0.93

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Coventry

1.52

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Coventry

1.23

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Coventry+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

65%

Luton or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

61%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

35%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

53%

Coventry (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.23 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Coventry attack 1.52 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more

39%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

35%

Luton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Morris

Luton · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

C. Morris↳ F. Onyedinma

11'

V. Gyökeres↳ B. Sheaf

15'

C. Morris↳ H. Cornick

26'

J. Panzo← M. Rose

30'

Fred Onyedinma

46'

E. Adebayo← H. Cornick

61'

G. Hamer

68'

Ben Sheaf

72'

A. Bell← F. Onyedinma

72'

H. Lansbury← L. Freeman

88'

Henri Lansbury

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonCoventry

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots11

7Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target4

3Off Target5

4Blocked2

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

353Total Passes394

225Accurate Passes263

64%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1