Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coventry vs Luton — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luton
Lutonadvanced
L. Kelly 120+10' (pen)
J. Eccles 120+7' (pen)
B. Sheaf 120+6' (pen)
V. Gyökeres 120+4' (pen)
M. Godden 120+2' (pen)
G. Hamer 66'
D. Potts 120+11' (pen)
L. Berry 120+9' (pen)
J. Clark 120+8' (pen), 23'
M. Nakamba 120+5' (pen)
J. Taylor 120+3' (pen)
C. Morris 120+1' (pen)
5/27/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Play-offs - FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry57%
×Draw24%
Luton20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.73
Luton
0.91

Coventry creates 90% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.83
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Coventry
0.97
Luton
1.62

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more
Luton-0.06on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
80%
Coventry or Luton
76%
Draw or Luton
43%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
32%
Luton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
82%
Coventry 2+ goals
52%
Coventry 3+ goals
25%
Luton 1+ goals
60%
Luton 2+ goals
23%
Luton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
74%
Luton (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Luton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Luton attack 0.85 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coventry scores more
57%
level
24%
Luton scores more
20%

Coventry at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. ClarkLutonLuton · M
7.5

Match Events

12'
R. Burke← T. Lockyer
23'
J. Clark↳ E. Adebayo
46'
Luke McNally
46'
M. Godden← J. Allen
66'
G. Hamer↳ V. Gyökeres
80'
K. Palmer← G. Hamer
84'
F. Onyedinma← A. Doughty
90'
F. Dabo← B. Norton-Cuffy
98'
L. Berry← P. Mpanzu
99'
Jordan Clark
102'
J. Eccles← K. Palmer
105'
J. Taylor← E. Adebayo
112'
D. Potts← G. Osho
115'
J. Panzo← C. Doyle
117'
Joe TaylorGoal cancelled
120+1'
C. MorrisPenalty
120+2'
M. GoddenPenalty
120+3'
J. TaylorPenalty
120+4'
V. GyökeresPenalty
120+5'
M. NakambaPenalty
120+6'
B. SheafPenalty
120+7'
J. EcclesPenalty
120+8'
J. ClarkPenalty
120+9'
L. BerryPenalty
120+10'
L. KellyPenalty
120+11'
D. PottsPenalty
120+12'
F. DaboMissed penalty

Possession

55%Coventry

Shots

14Coventry

Pass accuracy

52%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryLuton
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots13
4Corners6
16Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots13
3On Target4
9Off Target5
2Blocked4
7Inside Box9
7Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
516Total Passes414
351Accurate Passes261
68%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides6

Championship: Coventry 1–1 Luton

Coventry and Luton drew 1-1 in Championship on May 27, 2023.

Goals: J. Clark (23', 120+8' pen), G. Hamer (66'), C. Morris (120+1' pen), M. Godden (120+2' pen), J. Taylor (120+3' pen), V. Gyökeres (120+4' pen), M. Nakamba (120+5' pen), B. Sheaf (120+6' pen), J. Eccles (120+7' pen), L. Berry (120+9' pen), L. Kelly (120+10' pen), D. Potts (120+11' pen).

Coventry controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.