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Coventry vs Luton — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Luton
Luton
H. Wright 90+1'
V. Torp 76'
E. Simms 59'
E. Adebayo 37'
C. Morris 15' (pen)
10/26/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry57%
×Draw24%
Luton20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.73
Luton
0.91

Coventry creates 90% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.83
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Coventry
0.97
Luton
1.62

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more
Luton-0.06on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
80%
Coventry or Luton
76%
Draw or Luton
43%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
32%
Luton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
82%
Coventry 2+ goals
52%
Coventry 3+ goals
25%
Luton 1+ goals
60%
Luton 2+ goals
23%
Luton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
74%
Luton (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Luton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Luton attack 0.85 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coventry scores more
57%
level
24%
Luton scores more
20%

Coventry at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
H. WrightCoventryCoventry · F
8.3

Match Events

13'
Liam Kitching
15'
C. MorrisPenalty
17'
Alfie Doughty
18'
Carlton Morris
22'
Mark McGuinness
37'
E. Adebayo↳ T. Krauß
46'
J. Rudoni← L. Kitching
54'
Thomas Holmes
59'
E. Simms↳ J. Rudoni
60'
J. Brown← C. Morris
66'
V. Torp← T. Sakamoto
68'
M. Nakamba← T. Chong
76'
V. Torp↳ B. Sheaf
78'
L. Walsh← T. Krauß
79'
C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo
80'
Ben Sheaf
90'
Thomas Holmes
90'
Thomas Holmes
90+1'
H. Wright

Possession

67%Coventry

Shots

26Coventry

Pass accuracy

57%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryLuton
Overview
67%Possession33%
26Total Shots9
3.34Expected Goals (xG)1.71
11Corners5
9Fouls16
Shots
26Total Shots9
10On Target5
9Off Target4
7Blocked0
17Inside Box8
9Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
483Total Passes249
398Accurate Passes154
82%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
0.43Goals Prevented0.43
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Championship: Coventry 3–2 Luton

Coventry beat Luton 3-2 in Championship on October 26, 2024.

Goals: C. Morris (15' pen), E. Adebayo (37'), E. Simms (59'), V. Torp (76'), H. Wright (90+1').

Coventry controlled possession (67%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.