Luton 5–0 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Coventry

H. Cornick 58', 18'

E. Adebayo 45+7', 3' (pen)

L. Berry 30'

9/29/2021

Championship · Round 10Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton39%

×Draw27%

Coventry34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Luton

1.31

Coventry

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

1.39

creates per match

1.49

0.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Coventry

1.24

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

66%

Luton or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

61%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

18%

Coventry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

70%

Coventry 2+ goals

34%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

53%

Coventry (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Coventry attack 1.49 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more

39%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

34%

Luton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Cornick

Luton · F

9.7

Match Events

3'

E. AdebayoPenalty

17'

Gustavo Hamer

18'

H. Cornick↳ K. Naismith

30'

L. Berry↳ H. Cornick

45+7'

E. Adebayo↳ H. Cornick

46'

B. Sheaf← G. Hamer

58'

H. Cornick↳ L. Berry

62'

Ian Maatsen

64'

M. Rose← K. McFadzean

64'

T. Walker← V. Gyökeres

71'

Carlos Gomes← H. Cornick

71'

C. Jerome← E. Adebayo

80'

G. Osho← G. Rea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonCoventry

Overview

43%Possession57%

21Total Shots6

5Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots6

9On Target1

6Off Target2

6Blocked3

16Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

337Total Passes450

243Accurate Passes329

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2