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Luton vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
E. Adebayo 42' (pen)
J. Bree 23'
3/16/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton39%
×Draw27%
Coventry34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.31
Coventry
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Coventry
1.47

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
66%
Luton or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
61%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
18%
Coventry wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
73%
Luton 2+ goals
38%
Luton 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
34%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
54%
Coventry (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Coventry attack 1.47 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more
39%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
34%

Luton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. ClarkLutonLuton · M
7.7

Match Events

23'
J. Bree↳ H. Cornick
41'
Kyle McFadzean
42'
E. AdebayoPenalty
62'
J. Da Costa← F. Dabo
62'
B. Sheaf← G. Hamer
72'
M. Godden← C. OHare
72'
T. Walker← M. Biamou
81'
J. Collins← H. Cornick
81'
S. Nombe← E. Adebayo
82'
Sam Nombe
90'
Matthew Pearson

Possession

47%Luton

Shots

20Luton

Pass accuracy

49%Luton

Statistics

LutonCoventry
Overview
47%Possession53%
20Total Shots8
5Corners4
15Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots8
6On Target1
6Off Target3
8Blocked4
17Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
381Total Passes439
260Accurate Passes308
68%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Luton vs Coventry

Luton beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on March 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Bree (23'), E. Adebayo (42' pen).

Coventry controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 20.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.