Luton 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

M. Pearson 16'

J. Shipley 34'

2/24/2019

League One · Round 34Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Luton51%

×Draw24%

Coventry25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Luton

1.73

Coventry

1.13

Luton creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

2.04

creates per match

1.32

0.93

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Luton

2.04

Coventry

1.32

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Coventry

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw

75%

Luton or Coventry

76%

Draw or Coventry

49%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

28%

Coventry wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

82%

Luton 2+ goals

52%

Luton 3+ goals

25%

Coventry 1+ goals

68%

Coventry 2+ goals

31%

Coventry 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

67%

Coventry (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Coventry attack 1.32 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luton scores more

51%

level

24%

Coventry scores more

25%

Luton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Pearson↳ J. Justin

29'

Pelly Ruddock

30'

J. Shipley← A. Bakayoko

34'

J. Shipley↳ J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

43'

Tom Bayliss

58'

Luke Thomas

65'

E. Lee← G. Moncur

77'

D. Meyler← L. Thomas

78'

K. LuaLua← D. Hylton

84'

Kazenga LuaLua

84'

C. Wakefield← B. Enobakhare

90'

Jordan Shipley

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LutonCoventry

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots3

7Corners0

13Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots3

5On Target1

5Off Target2

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls17

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2