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Luton vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
J. Clark 71'
1/31/2026League OneLeague One · Round 30Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Luton53%
×Draw24%
Blackpool23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.67
Blackpool
1.01

Luton creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Luton
1.65
Blackpool
0.91

allows per match

Luton
1.10
Blackpool
1.68

finishing

Luton+0.06on par
Blackpool+0.22scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luton or draw
77%
Luton or Blackpool
76%
Draw or Blackpool
47%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
28%
Blackpool wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
81%
Luton 2+ goals
50%
Luton 3+ goals
23%
Blackpool 1+ goals
64%
Blackpool 2+ goals
27%
Blackpool 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
70%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.68 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.65 + Blackpool defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Blackpool attack 0.91 + Luton defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Luton scores more
53%
level
24%
Blackpool scores more
23%

Luton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. EvansBlackpoolBlackpool · M
7.9

Match Events

55'
J. Richards← C. Bramall
62'
T. Bloxham← M. Obafemi
68'
A. Al Hamadi← N. Wells
68'
I. Jones← S. Morris
71'
J. Clark
75'
N. Ennis← J. Bowler
89'
K. Naismith← G. Kodua
89'
G. Saville← K. Palmer
90+8'
Kal Naismith

Possession

51%Luton

Shots

13Luton

Pass accuracy

52%Luton

Statistics

LutonBlackpool
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots5
1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.33
5Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots5
5On Target1
5Off Target4
3Blocked1
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
458Total Passes437
359Accurate Passes317
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Blackpool

Luton beat Blackpool 1-0 in League One on January 31, 2026.

Goals: J. Clark (71').

Luton controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.