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Blackpool vs Luton — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Luton
Luton
C. Hamilton 53', 9'
G. Kodua 90' (pen)
J. Clark 78'
9/30/2025League OneLeague One · Round 7Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool35%
×Draw23%
Luton42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.59
Luton
1.75

Luton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.49
Luton
1.87

allows per match

Blackpool
1.63
Luton
1.69

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less
Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
58%
Blackpool or Luton
77%
Draw or Luton
65%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
17%
Luton wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
80%
Blackpool 2+ goals
47%
Blackpool 3+ goals
21%
Luton 1+ goals
83%
Luton 2+ goals
52%
Luton 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
46%
Luton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Luton away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Luton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Luton attack 1.87 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackpool scores more
35%
level
23%
Luton scores more
42%

Luton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
C. HamiltonBlackpoolBlackpool · M
9.3

Match Events

9'
C. Hamilton↳ J. Bowler
16'
A. Lyons← D. Imray
41'
Ashley Fletcher
53'
C. Hamilton↳ D. Taylor
56'
J. Clark← Z. Nelson
57'
G. Kodua← M. Alli
57'
J. Gbode← N. Wells
71'
T. Bloxham← A. Fletcher
74'
J. Richards← S. Morris
75'
L. Nordas← L. Fanne
78'
J. Clark↳ G. Saville
81'
L. Evans← D. Taylor
81'
E. Hansson← J. Bowler
90+1'
Albie Morgan
90+1'
George Saville
90'
G. KoduaPenalty

Possession

39%Blackpool

Shots

11Blackpool

Pass accuracy

45%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolLuton
Overview
39%Possession61%
11Total Shots15
3Corners8
8Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots15
3On Target3
3Off Target7
5Blocked5
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
283Total Passes441
184Accurate Passes346
65%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

League One: Blackpool 2–2 Luton

Blackpool and Luton drew 2-2 in League One on September 30, 2025.

Goals: C. Hamilton (9', 53'), J. Clark (78'), G. Kodua (90' pen).

Luton controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool.