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Luton vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
E. Adebayo 2'
G. Madine 55' (pen)
4/23/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Blackpool26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.42
Blackpool
0.98

Luton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
41%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Blackpool 1+ goals
62%
Blackpool 2+ goals
26%
Blackpool 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
P. KiosoLutonLuton · M
7.3

Match Events

2'
E. Adebayo↳ K. Naismith
19'
Kenneth Dougall
55'
G. MadinePenalty
66'
A. Muskwe← S. Bradley
68'
CJ Hamilton
69'
J. Bowler← C. Kirk
76'
H. Lansbury← D. Potts
76'
S. Lavery← J. Beesley
81'
C. Jerome← H. Cornick
90+5'
Shayne Lavery
90+1'
Gary Madine

Possession

48%Luton

Shots

10Luton

Pass accuracy

49%Luton

Statistics

LutonBlackpool
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots14
0Corners3
17Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots14
5On Target2
3Off Target9
2Blocked3
7Inside Box10
3Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
297Total Passes313
168Accurate Passes189
57%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls14
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Championship: Luton 1–1 Blackpool

Luton and Blackpool drew 1-1 in Championship on April 23, 2022.

Goals: E. Adebayo (2'), G. Madine (55' pen).

Blackpool controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.