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Luton vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
P. Mpanzu 76', 45+2'
C. Morris 72'
A. Lyons 29'
4/10/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Blackpool26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.42
Blackpool
0.98

Luton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
41%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Blackpool 1+ goals
62%
Blackpool 2+ goals
26%
Blackpool 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. MpanzuLutonLuton · M
8.3

Match Events

29'
A. Lyons↳ L. Fiorini
42'
Jordan Thorniley
45+2'
P. Mpanzu↳ C. Morris
47'
Lewis Fiorini
63'
L. Berry← A. Campbell
63'
C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo
63'
C. Connolly← K. Anderson
72'
C. Morris
75'
K. Dougall← S. Carey
75'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← L. Fiorini
76'
P. Mpanzu↳ C. Woodrow
81'
Carlton Morris
86'
L. Freeman← A. Doughty
90+3'
S. Bradley← P. Mpanzu

Possession

57%Luton

Shots

21Luton

Pass accuracy

54%Luton

Statistics

LutonBlackpool
Overview
57%Possession43%
21Total Shots11
7Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots11
4On Target5
6Off Target4
11Blocked2
16Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
396Total Passes294
293Accurate Passes185
74%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Luton vs Blackpool

Luton beat Blackpool 3-1 in Championship on April 10, 2023.

Goals: A. Lyons (29'), P. Mpanzu (45+2', 76'), C. Morris (72').

Luton controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.