Luton 2–2 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Blackpool

J. Cummings 86'

J. Collins 6'

M. Virtue-Thick 62'

N. Kirby 30'

4/6/2019

League One · Round 41Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Luton50%

×Draw25%

Blackpool25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.04

Luton

1.60

Blackpool

1.04

Luton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.46

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Luton

1.46

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Luton

1.15

Blackpool

1.75

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Luton+0.12scores more

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luton or draw

75%

Luton or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

26%

Blackpool wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

80%

Luton 2+ goals

47%

Luton 3+ goals

22%

Blackpool 1+ goals

65%

Blackpool 2+ goals

28%

Blackpool 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

67%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Luton defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more

50%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

25%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Collins↳ K. LuaLua

30'

N. Kirby↳ M. Virtue-Thick

50'

54'

59'

59'

61'

61'

62'

67'

68'

J. Thompson← N. Kirby

74'

H. Cornick← L. Berry

82'

J. Cummings← E. Lee

82'

H. Pritchard← L. Feeney

86'

J. Cummings↳ P. Ruddock

88'

C. Long← N. Delfouneso

90'

Christopher Long

Luton

Blackpool

37

20

27

16

8

24

▼

Feeney

6

Heneghan

17

⚽A

Virtue-Th

23

⚽

▼

Kirby

7

▼

21

36

5

6

25

A

▼

LuaLua

11

Shinnie

8

▼

Berry

17

A

Ruddock

7

Stacey

2

Justin

19

⚽

Collins

10

▼

Lee

Manager: M. Harford

59'▲G. Moncur←▼K. LuaLua

74'▲H. Cornick←▼L. Berry

82'▲J. Cummings←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

20Moncur14Cornick23Cummings12Baptiste24Thorne40Isted44Sheehan

Manager: T. McPhillips

68'▲J. Thompson←▼N. Kirby

82'▲H. Pritchard←▼L. Feeney

88'▲C. Long←▼N. Delfouneso

Blackpool substitutes

15Thompson14Pritchard31Long2Daniels5Evans12Nottingham34Shaw

League One: Luton 2–2 Blackpool

Luton and Blackpool drew 2-2 in League One on April 6, 2019.

Goals: J. Collins (6'), N. Kirby (30'), M. Virtue-Thick (62'), J. Cummings (86').

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.

Luton vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Luton 2–2 Blackpool