Luton 2–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

R. Burke 67'

C. Morris 58'

9/17/2022

Championship · Round 11Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%

×Draw27%

Blackburn26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.96

Luton

1.39

Blackburn

0.96

Luton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

1.39

creates per match

0.99

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Blackburn

0.99

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Blackburn

1.39

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Blackburn+0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

74%

Luton or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

22%

Blackburn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

75%

Luton 2+ goals

40%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Blackburn 1+ goals

62%

Blackburn 2+ goals

25%

Blackburn 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

64%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blackburn attack 0.99 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more

47%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Burke

Luton · D

8.0

Match Events

41'

45'

58'

59'

59'

C. Brittain← H. Carter

61'

Tom Lockyer

61'

Callum Brittain

67'

R. Burke

70'

J. Buckley← T. Morton

75'

L. Freeman← H. Lansbury

75'

C. Jerome← C. Woodrow

77'

Cameron Jerome

89'

F. Onyedinma← C. Morris

90+3'

G. Osho← J. Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonBlackburn

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots7

4Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target1

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

322Total Passes515

222Accurate Passes414

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1