Luton 0–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

1/29/2022

Championship · Round 29Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%

×Draw27%

Blackburn26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.96

Luton

1.39

Blackburn

0.96

Luton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

1.39

creates per match

0.99

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Blackburn

0.99

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Blackburn

1.39

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Blackburn+0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

74%

Luton or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

22%

Blackburn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

75%

Luton 2+ goals

40%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Blackburn 1+ goals

62%

Blackburn 2+ goals

25%

Blackburn 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

64%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blackburn attack 0.99 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more

47%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. van Hecke

Blackburn · D

8.2

Match Events

22'

J. Rankin-Costello← A. Edun

28'

Jan Paul van Hecke

29'

James Bree

47'

Tom Lockyer

51'

D. Butterworth← S. Gallagher

70'

H. Cornick← C. Jerome

70'

A. Muskwe← F. Onyedinma

76'

Daniel Ayala← J. Buckley

83'

L. Berry← A. Campbell

90+6'

Harry Cornick

90+6'

Thomas Kaminski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonBlackburn

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots7

6Corners5

16Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target2

4Off Target2

2Blocked3

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

303Total Passes283

164Accurate Passes159

54%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2