Blackburn 1–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

H. Carter 86'

T. Lockyer 50'

5/1/2023

Championship · Round 45Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Blackburn48%

×Draw27%

Luton25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.96

Blackburn

1.45

Luton

0.96

Blackburn creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Luton

1.59

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

75%

Blackburn or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

52%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

24%

Luton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

77%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

62%

Luton 2+ goals

25%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

66%

Luton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Luton attack 0.85 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackburn scores more

48%

level

27%

Luton scores more

25%

Blackburn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

H. Carter

Blackburn · D

7.9

Match Events

50'

T. Lockyer↳ C. Morris

54'

S. Thomas← R. Hedges

54'

B. Dack← T. Dolan

66'

F. Onyedinma← A. Doughty

66'

P. Mpanzu← J. Clark

72'

Dominic Hyam

74'

A. Campbell← M. Nakamba

75'

L. Freeman← C. Morris

81'

H. Leonard← L. Travis

81'

C. Brittain← H. Pickering

83'

D. Potts← C. Drameh

86'

H. Carter↳ S. Thomas

90+4'

Sammie Szmodics

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnLuton

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots13

9Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target4

4Off Target4

8Blocked5

12Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

550Total Passes337

441Accurate Passes234

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1