Blackburn 2–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Blackburn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

O. Beck 40'

A. Cozier-Duberry 32'

12/14/2024

Championship · Round 21Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Blackburn49%

×Draw26%

Luton25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.96

Blackburn

1.47

Luton

0.96

Blackburn creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Luton

1.62

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Luton-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

75%

Blackburn or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

51%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

24%

Luton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

77%

Blackburn 2+ goals

43%

Blackburn 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

62%

Luton 2+ goals

25%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

66%

Luton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Luton attack 0.85 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blackburn scores more

49%

level

26%

Luton scores more

25%

Blackburn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Batth

Blackburn · D

8.3

Match Events

1'

Harry Pickering

3'

Jordan Clark

32'

A. Cozier-Duberry↳ M. Gueye

40'

O. Beck↳ M. Gueye

52'

60'

61'

62'

62'

73'

74'

R. Hedges← A. Cozier-Duberry

75'

J. Buckley← Y. Ohashi

77'

J. Johnson← D. Hashioka

85'

Z. Nelson← V. Moses

86'

J. Taylor← C. Morris

89'

H. Leonard← M. Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnLuton

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots10

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.89

4Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box8

1Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes376

321Accurate Passes296

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2