Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luton vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
J. Collins 60' (pen)
B. Johnson 35' (OG)
H. Carter 28' (OG)
S. Gallagher 75'
A. Armstrong 10'
7/22/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Blackburn26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.39
Blackburn
0.97

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Blackburn
1.39

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Blackburn+0.08on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Blackburn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Blackburn 1+ goals
62%
Blackburn 2+ goals
25%
Blackburn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.39 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. ArmstrongBlackburnBlackburn · F
7.4

Match Events

10'
A. Armstrong
28'
H. CarterOwn goal
35'
B. JohnsonOwn goal
37'
Lewis Travis
46'
J. Buckley← L. Holtby
46'
J. Davenport← L. Travis
60'
J. CollinsPenalty
61'
S. Gallagher← A. Armstrong
61'
D. Graham← B. Brereton
65'
Harry Cornick
71'
K. LuaLua← H. Cornick
72'
D. Hylton← J. Collins
75'
S. Gallagher↳ D. Graham
78'
M. Pearson← E. Lee
78'
E. Bennett← J. Rothwell
83'
Cameron Carter-Vickers
88'
Danny Hylton
90'
Luke Berry

Possession

32%Luton

Shots

8Luton

Pass accuracy

44%Luton

Statistics

LutonBlackburn
Overview
32%Possession68%
8Total Shots14
2Corners6
10Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots14
1On Target4
6Off Target7
1Blocked3
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
271Total Passes568
167Accurate Passes455
62%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Blackburn

Luton beat Blackburn 3-2 in Championship on July 22, 2020.

Goals: A. Armstrong (10'), H. Carter (28' o.g.), B. Johnson (35' o.g.), J. Collins (60' pen), S. Gallagher (75').

Blackburn controlled possession (68%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.