Lorient 3–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Lorient

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajaccio

E. Genton 90+2'

E. Kroupi 78', 69'

9/27/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Lorient56%

×Draw25%

Ajaccio20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.85

Lorient

1.63

Ajaccio

0.85

Lorient creates 92% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 104 away

2.02

creates per match

0.76

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Lorient

2.02

Ajaccio

0.76

allows per match

Lorient

0.95

Ajaccio

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorient+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

80%

Lorient or Ajaccio

75%

Draw or Ajaccio

44%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

30%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

80%

Lorient 2+ goals

48%

Lorient 3+ goals

22%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

57%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

21%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

74%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 2.02 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Lorient defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lorient scores more

56%

level

25%

Ajaccio scores more

20%

Lorient at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Kroupi

Lorient · M

8.9

Match Events

16'

Tim Jabol-Folcarelli

19'

T. Mangani← Y. Touzghar

42'

42'

46'

56'

56'

56'

J. Mvuka← P. Katseris

63'

Sambou Soumano

64'

M. Soumano← C. Ibayi

64'

A. Kanté← I. Chegra

69'

E. Kroupi↳ S. Soumano

75'

M. Puch-Herrantz← S. Quemper

77'

E. Genton← M. Bamba

78'

E. Kroupi↳ L. Abergel

83'

Julien Anziani

90+2'

E. Genton↳ J. Ponceau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientAjaccio

Overview

67%Possession33%

30Total Shots5

8Corners3

20Fouls15

Shots

30Total Shots5

11On Target1

9Off Target2

10Blocked2

15Inside Box1

15Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

480Total Passes250

413Accurate Passes167

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

20Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1