Lorient 3–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lorient

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ajaccio

J. Ponceau 58'

R. Faivre 43'

B. Dieng 6' (pen)

2/19/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lorient58%

×Draw22%

Ajaccio20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.02

Lorient

1.92

Ajaccio

1.02

Lorient creates 88% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 31 away

1.44

creates per match

0.68

1.36

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Lorient

1.44

Ajaccio

0.68

allows per match

Lorient

1.36

Ajaccio

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorient+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

80%

Lorient or Ajaccio

78%

Draw or Ajaccio

42%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

34%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

85%

Lorient 2+ goals

57%

Lorient 3+ goals

30%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

64%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

27%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

75%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.44 + Ajaccio defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ajaccio attack 0.68 + Lorient defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lorient scores more

58%

level

22%

Ajaccio scores more

20%

Lorient at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Kalulu

Lorient · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

B. DiengPenalty

28'

43'

49'

58'

62'

M. Djitté← M. Soumano

64'

L. Abergel← E. Le Fée

65'

T. Le Bris← B. Dieng

74'

A. Aouchiche← J. Ponceau

74'

S. Diarra← R. Faivre

76'

Ruan Levine← R. Hamouma

77'

M. Puch-Herrantz← C. Vidal

85'

S. Doucouré← I. Koné

87'

J. Botué← C. Bayala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientAjaccio

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots12

2.54Expected Goals (xG)0.73

2Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

6On Target3

0Off Target7

4Blocked2

10Inside Box7

0Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

556Total Passes383

481Accurate Passes314

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1