Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajaccio vs Lorient — Ligue 2 2018

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lorient
Lorient
C. Bayala 52'
3/7/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade François Coty (Ajaccio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ajaccio37%
×Draw29%
Lorient34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.15
Lorient
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.14
Lorient
1.42

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.77
Lorient
1.16

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
66%
Ajaccio or Lorient
71%
Draw or Lorient
63%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
15%
Lorient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
68%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
32%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
11%
Lorient 1+ goals
66%
Lorient 2+ goals
30%
Lorient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
52%
Lorient (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + Lorient defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lorient attack 1.42 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ajaccio scores more
37%
level
29%
Lorient scores more
34%

Ajaccio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. BayalaAjaccioAjaccio · M
7.7

Match Events

4'
Mounaim El Idrissy
11'
T. Fontaine← M. Saunier
52'
C. Bayala↳ Q. Laçi
56'
K. Lejeune← M. Coutadeur
58'
Ismaël Diallo
66'
U. Bozok← Y. Wissa
74'
J. Cabot← E. Le Fée
80'
J. Cavalli← H. Cuypers
81'
A. Flips← M. Tramoni

Possession

53%Ajaccio

Shots

8Ajaccio

Pass accuracy

51%Ajaccio

Statistics

AjaccioLorient
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots6
4Corners4
14Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots6
5On Target1
3Off Target4
0Blocked1
5Inside Box1
3Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
465Total Passes397
351Accurate Passes291
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Ligue 2: Ajaccio 1–0 Lorient

Ajaccio beat Lorient 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 7, 2020.

Goals: C. Bayala (52').

Ajaccio controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade François Coty (Ajaccio) in Ajaccio.