Ajaccio 2–1 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lorient

B. Touré 68'

J. Anziani 24'

P. Pagis 84'

5/2/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Michel-Moretti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ajaccio37%

×Draw29%

Lorient34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Ajaccio

1.15

Lorient

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

1.42

0.77

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.14

Lorient

1.42

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.77

Lorient

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

66%

Ajaccio or Lorient

71%

Draw or Lorient

63%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

15%

Lorient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

68%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

32%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

11%

Lorient 1+ goals

66%

Lorient 2+ goals

30%

Lorient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

52%

Lorient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + Lorient defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lorient attack 1.42 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ajaccio scores more

37%

level

29%

Lorient scores more

34%

Ajaccio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Touré

Ajaccio · F

7.7

Match Events

24'

J. Anziani↳ T. Strata

42'

46'

63'

63'

63'

66'

J. Mabepa Ayessa Ondze← M. Huard

68'

70'

72'

72'

80'

84'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioLorient

Overview

33%Possession67%

5Total Shots19

0Corners6

8Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots19

3On Target5

2Off Target8

0Blocked6

4Inside Box7

1Outside Box12

Passing

33%Possession67%

300Total Passes602

213Accurate Passes518

71%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Ligue 2: Ajaccio 2–1 Lorient

Ajaccio beat Lorient 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Anziani (24'), B. Touré (68'), P. Pagis (84').

Lorient controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Michel-Moretti in Ajaccio.

Ajaccio vs Lorient — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Ajaccio 2–1 Lorient