Lokomotiv 5–1 Akron: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

5 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

Akron

A. Batrakov 39'

D. Vorobyev 28'

Z. Bakaev 26'

A. Rudenko 23'

C. Montes 6'

K. Arevalo 13'

3/22/2026

Premier League · Round 22RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lokomotiv50%

×Draw24%

Akron26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.12

Lokomotiv

1.67

Akron

1.12

Lokomotiv creates 49% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 32 away

1.69

creates per match

1.22

1.02

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.69

Akron

1.22

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.02

Akron

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

74%

Lokomotiv or Akron

76%

Draw or Akron

50%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

27%

Akron wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

50%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

23%

Akron 1+ goals

67%

Akron 2+ goals

31%

Akron 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

66%

Akron (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.69 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Akron attack 1.22 + Lokomotiv defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

50%

level

24%

Akron scores more

26%

Lokomotiv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

A. Karpukas

Lokomotiv · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

C. Montes↳ Lucas Fasson

13'

K. Arevalo↳ D. Pestryakov

23'

A. Rudenko↳ D. Vorobyev

26'

Z. Bakaev↳ A. Batrakov

28'

D. Vorobyev↳ A. Karpukas

39'

A. Batrakov

46'

R. Escoval← K. Khosonov

46'

A. Djurasovic← S. Loncar

47'

M. Kuzmin← I. Nedelcearu

62'

V. Sarveli← Z. Bakaev

63'

N. Komlichenko← D. Vorobyev

70'

Rodrigo Escoval

72'

N. Bazilevskiy← I. Djakovac

74'

Nikolay KomlichenkoGoal cancelled

77'

Y. Rocha← M. Boldyrev

79'

L. Vera← D. Prutsev

79'

D. Chevardin← A. Rudenko

84'

N. Saltykov← A. Batrakov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivAkron

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots10

9Corners2

17Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots10

10On Target4

5Off Target5

4Blocked1

16Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

456Total Passes293

380Accurate Passes224

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls10

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3