Akron 1–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Akron

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv

Benchimol 42'

C. Montes 67'

10/26/2025

Premier League · Round 13Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron31%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.67

Akron

1.34

Lokomotiv

1.67

Lokomotiv creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 120 away

1.25

creates per match

1.52

1.81

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Akron

1.25

Lokomotiv

1.52

allows per match

Akron

1.81

Lokomotiv

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Akron or draw

55%

Akron or Lokomotiv

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv

69%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

13%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

74%

Akron 2+ goals

39%

Akron 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

50%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

41%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Akron scores more

31%

level

24%

Lokomotiv scores more

45%

Lokomotiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Montes

Lokomotiv · D

8.2

Match Events

42'

Benchimol

46'

Z. Bakaev← A. Rudenko

46'

N. Komlichenko← A. Karpukas

61'

M. Nenakhov← A. Silyanov

62'

M. Boldyrev← A. Dzyuba

67'

C. Montes↳ A. Batrakov

70'

R. Escoval← M. Kuzmin

70'

D. Pestryakov← I. Djakovac

72'

Khetag Khosonov

79'

Ionuț Nedelcearu

79'

E. Sevikyan← Y. Rocha

79'

K. Bistrovic← S. Loncar

80'

V. Sarveli← D. Vorobyev

87'

César Montes

90+1'

S. Pinyaev← D. Prutsev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AkronLokomotiv

Overview

35%Possession65%

3Total Shots15

3Corners8

17Fouls11

Shots

3Total Shots15

2On Target3

1Off Target8

0Blocked4

2Inside Box11

1Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

262Total Passes470

160Accurate Passes374

61%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Akron vs Lokomotiv

Akron and Lokomotiv drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 26, 2025.

Goals: Benchimol (42'), C. Montes (67').

Lokomotiv controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 3.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.

Akron vs Lokomotiv — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Akron vs Lokomotiv