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Akron vs Lokomotiv — Cup 2019

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
D. Pestryakov 88' (pen)
D. Popenkov 90' (OG)
N. Komlichenko 49', 48'
9/16/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 4Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akron43%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.67
Lokomotiv
1.44

Akron creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Akron
1.86
Lokomotiv
1.95

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Lokomotiv
1.47

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Akron or draw
67%
Akron or Lokomotiv
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv
57%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
22%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
81%
Akron 2+ goals
50%
Akron 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
56%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Lokomotiv defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lokomotiv attack 1.95 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akron scores more
43%
level
24%
Lokomotiv scores more
33%

Akron at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Denis Popenkov
46'
Lucas Fasson← C. Ramirez
48'
N. Komlichenko↳ V. Sarveli
49'
N. Komlichenko↳ Lucas Fasson
59'
D. Pestryakov← K. Savichev
59'
K. Bistrovic← M. Kuzmin
59'
S. Bakaev← E. Sevikyan
59'
Z. Bakaev← A. Rudenko
59'
A. Karpukas← D. Barinov
66'
I. Nedelcearu← T. Kuzmenko
68'
N. Saltykov← N. Komlichenko
68'
D. Vorobyev← V. Sarveli
72'
S. Loncar← K. Khosonov
88'
D. PestryakovPenalty
90+3'
Khetag Khosonov
90+3'
Dmitriy Vorobyev
90'
D. PopenkovOwn goal

Statistics

AkronLokomotiv
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Akron vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Akron 3-1 in Cup on September 16, 2025.

Goals: N. Komlichenko (48', 49'), D. Pestryakov (88' pen), D. Popenkov (90' o.g.).

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.