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Lokomotiv vs Akron — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akron
Akron
D. Vorobyev 71' (pen)
N. Komlichenko 12'
8/28/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 3RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lokomotiv55%
×Draw22%
Akron24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
2.00
Akron
1.25

Lokomotiv creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
Akron
1.55

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.95
Akron
2.00

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
76%
Lokomotiv or Akron
78%
Draw or Akron
45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
32%
Akron wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
32%
Akron 1+ goals
71%
Akron 2+ goals
36%
Akron 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
70%
Akron (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Akron away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + Akron defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Akron attack 1.55 + Lokomotiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
55%
level
22%
Akron scores more
24%

Lokomotiv at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
N. Komlichenko↳ Z. Bakaev
46'
A. Karpukas← D. Barinov
46'
A. Rudenko← C. Ramirez
46'
M. Bokoev← I. Nedelcearu
46'
M. Boldyrev← A. Morozov
46'
N. Shershov← K. Savichev
46'
N. Bazilevskiy← S. Loncar
47'
Konstantin Maradishvili
59'
Rodrigo Escoval
59'
M. Nenakhov← A. Silyanov
59'
D. Vorobyev← N. Komlichenko
64'
Konstantin Maradishvili
64'
Konstantin Maradishvili
71'
A. Djurasovic← S. Bakaev
71'
D. VorobyevPenalty
72'
A. Batrakov← Z. Bakaev
77'
Aleksey Batrakov

Statistics

LokomotivAkron
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Cup: Lokomotiv 2–0 Akron

Lokomotiv beat Akron 2-0 in Cup on August 28, 2025.

Goals: N. Komlichenko (12'), D. Vorobyev (71' pen).

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moscow.