Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Liverpool Montevideo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

L. Rodríguez 79'

J. Ortiz 8'

4/5/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo39%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool MontevideoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Liverpool Montevideo

1.42

Independiente del Valle

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.00

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.75

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

65%

Liverpool Montevideo or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

61%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

18%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

74%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

38%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

39%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

35%

Liverpool Montevideo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liverpool Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Landázuri

Independiente del Valle · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

J. Ortiz↳ J. Sornoza

11'

Luciano Rodriguez

30'

Patrik Mercado

46'

A. Bolaños← P. Mercado

53'

Cristian Zabala

59'

R. Machado← M. Ocampo

59'

D. García← L. Wasilewsky

63'

Y. Medina← J. Sornoza

67'

F. Nicola← M. Samudio

78'

78'

79'

81'

89'

D. Rodríguez← M. Barrios

90+2'

Rrenato Ibarra← C. Zabala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolIndependiente

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots11

0.36Expected Goals (xG)1.10

3Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target2

9Off Target7

3Blocked2

4Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

320Total Passes559

227Accurate Passes465

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Liverpool Montevideo and Independiente del Valle drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 5, 2024.

Goals: J. Ortiz (8'), L. Rodríguez (79').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Independiente del Valle