Independiente del Valle 2–0 Liverpool Montevideo

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Liverpool Montevideo

A. Minda 67'

J. Sornoza 27'

4/19/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Independiente del Valle72%

×Draw18%

Liverpool Montevideo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.72

Independiente del Valle

2.26

Liverpool Montevideo

0.72

Independiente del Valle creates 214% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

2.28

creates per match

0.63

0.80

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Liverpool Montevideo

0.63

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Liverpool Montevideo

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Liverpool Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

90%

Independiente del Valle or Liverpool Montevideo

82%

Draw or Liverpool Montevideo

28%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

48%

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

89%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

66%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

39%

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

51%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

16%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

87%

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.26

Liverpool Montevideo attack 0.63 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

72%

level

18%

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

10%

Independiente del Valle at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Sornoza

Independiente del Valle · F

9.5

Match Events

27'

J. Sornoza↳ M. Hoyos

45+2'

A. Garcia

46'

I. Rodríguez← G. Nápoli

46'

L. Otormín← A. Medina

64'

A. Minda← Y. Medina

65'

I. Rodriguez

67'

A. Minda↳ J. Sornoza

68'

M. Barrios← F. Díaz

68'

G. Olivera← M. Samudio

73'

M. Moreno← M. Hoyos

73'

J. Alcívar← J. Ortiz

76'

L. Diaz

77'

M. Cabrera← R. Bentancourt

78'

A. Minda

81'

A. Landázuri← M. Fernández

81'

P. Mercado← J. Sornoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteLiverpool

Overview

69%Possession31%

27Total Shots5

6Corners3

6Fouls5

Shots

27Total Shots5

10On Target0

12Off Target3

5Blocked2

14Inside Box1

13Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

602Total Passes269

527Accurate Passes184

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

6Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2