Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Independiente del Valle

Liverpool Montevideo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

R. Bentancourt 65'

5/24/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo39%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool MontevideoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Liverpool Montevideo

1.42

Independiente del Valle

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.00

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.75

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

65%

Liverpool Montevideo or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

61%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

18%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

74%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

38%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

39%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

35%

Liverpool Montevideo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liverpool Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Britos

Liverpool Montevideo · G

8.7

Match Events

-5'

9'

43'

44'

45+3'

45+2'

Moisés RamírezCard upgrade

45+7'

K. Pinargote← L. Faravelli

46'

46'

46'

65'

70'

73'

74'

I. Rodríguez← J. Izquierdo

83'

J. Sornoza← J. Alcívar

83'

Y. Medina← M. Carbajal

84'

M. Zunino← M. Meli

90+2'

Matías Zunino

90+2'

Junior Sornoza

90+1'

G. Olivera← A. Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolIndependiente

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots16

5Corners5

8Fouls4

Shots

10Total Shots16

5On Target7

5Off Target6

0Blocked3

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

391Total Passes568

311Accurate Passes491

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls4

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1