Independiente del Valle 2–1 Liverpool Montevideo

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Liverpool Montevideo

L. Díaz 55', 20'

A. González 35'

5/30/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Independiente del Valle72%

×Draw18%

Liverpool Montevideo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.72

Independiente del Valle

2.26

Liverpool Montevideo

0.72

Independiente del Valle creates 214% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

2.28

creates per match

0.63

0.80

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Liverpool Montevideo

0.63

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Liverpool Montevideo

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Liverpool Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

90%

Independiente del Valle or Liverpool Montevideo

82%

Draw or Liverpool Montevideo

28%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

48%

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

89%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

66%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

39%

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

51%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

16%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

87%

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.26

Liverpool Montevideo attack 0.63 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

72%

level

18%

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

10%

Independiente del Valle at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Díaz

Independiente del Valle · F

9.3

Match Events

16'

17'

20'

22'

35'

43'

46'

M. Fernández← A. Landázuri

46'

C. Zabala← J. Alcívar

55'

L. Díaz↳ Y. Medina

63'

R. Machado← H. Vergara

63'

D. García← A. González

65'

K. Arroyo← K. Páez

72'

D. Rodríguez← K. Amaro

78'

L. Zárate← Y. Medina

79'

F. Bregante← F. Nicola

79'

L. Wasilewsky← M. Barrios

90+4'

Jean Rosso

90+1'

R. López← L. Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteLiverpool

Overview

70%Possession30%

23Total Shots8

2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.23

14Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots8

8On Target1

13Off Target5

2Blocked2

19Inside Box2

4Outside Box6

Passing

70%Possession30%

513Total Passes220

459Accurate Passes165

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

-0.90Goals Prevented-0.90

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2