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Lincoln vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
L. Fiorini 55'
M. Smith 22'
9/14/2021League OneLeague One · Round 6LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln50%
×Draw24%
Rotherham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.71
Rotherham
1.15

Lincoln creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Rotherham
0.96

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Rotherham
1.41

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
74%
Lincoln or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
50%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
27%
Rotherham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
82%
Lincoln 2+ goals
51%
Lincoln 3+ goals
24%
Rotherham 1+ goals
68%
Rotherham 2+ goals
32%
Rotherham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
66%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lincoln scores more
50%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
26%

Lincoln at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. GriffithsLincolnLincoln · G
8.0

Match Events

22'
L. Fiorini← C. McGrandles
22'
M. Smith↳ F. Ladapo
55'
L. Fiorini↳ C. Maguire
56'
Michael Smith
66'
Adam Jackson
67'
H. Adelakun← C. Maguire
68'
W. Grigg← F. Ladapo
69'
K. Sadlier← T. Bola
71'
Joe Mattock
81'
C. Bramall← J. Robson
81'
B. Wiles← J. Lindsay

Possession

53%Lincoln

Shots

9Lincoln

Pass accuracy

50%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnRotherham
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots26
5Corners8
13Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots26
3On Target8
4Off Target11
2Blocked7
6Inside Box19
3Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
382Total Passes329
263Accurate Passes231
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls19
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Rotherham

Lincoln and Rotherham drew 1-1 in League One on September 14, 2021.

Goals: M. Smith (22'), L. Fiorini (55').

Lincoln controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 26.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.