Lincoln 0–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

M. Crooks 47'

2/7/2020

League One · Round 32Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln50%

×Draw24%

Rotherham26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Lincoln

1.71

Rotherham

1.15

Lincoln creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

0.96

1.33

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lincoln

2.01

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Rotherham

1.41

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

74%

Lincoln or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

50%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

27%

Rotherham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

82%

Lincoln 2+ goals

51%

Lincoln 3+ goals

24%

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

66%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lincoln scores more

50%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

26%

Lincoln at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Vassell

Rotherham · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Cian Bolger

42'

Max Melbourne

47'

M. Crooks↳ K. Vassell

72'

A. Scully← J. Hesketh

77'

F. Ladapo← K. Vassell

79'

J. Koroma← C. Ogbene

82'

T. Hopper← H. Anderson

90'

Michael Smith

90+1'

S. MacDonald← H. Adelakun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnRotherham

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots15

1Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target3

4Off Target8

1Blocked4

5Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

340Total Passes295

216Accurate Passes165

64%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls20

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0