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Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta — Division Profesional - Apertura 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
L. Melgarejo 86'
3/30/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 14Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Libertad Asuncion47%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Recoleta28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.62
Deportivo Recoleta
1.19

Libertad Asuncion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.65
Deportivo Recoleta
1.50

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.87
Deportivo Recoleta
1.59

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
72%
Libertad Asuncion or Deportivo Recoleta
75%
Draw or Deportivo Recoleta
53%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
80%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
48%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.65 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.50 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
47%
level
25%
Deportivo Recoleta scores more
28%

Libertad Asuncion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. MelgarejoLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · F
8.0

Match Events

30'
Marcos PereiraGoal cancelled
40'
Lorenzo MelgarejoCard reviewed
43'
Wilfrido Baez
45+6'
Iván Ramírez
45+8'
Ronal Dominguez
46'
E. Diaz← I. Ramirez
46'
A. Campuzano← H. Caballero
46'
C. Figueredo← F. A. Echeguren Zarza
58'
J. Espinola← R. Dominguez
58'
H. Lopez← A. Wlk
61'
A. Molinas← H. Martinez
67'
Nelson Ferreira
71'
F. Carrizo← L. Sanabria
78'
D. Orue← A. Franco
78'
J. Falcon← W. Baez
84'
G. Aguilar← M. D. Espinoza Acosta
84'
M. Schupp← A. Gonzalez
86'
L. Melgarejo↳ G. Aguilar
90+3'
S. Delvalle←

Possession

52%Libertad

Shots

19Libertad

Pass accuracy

49%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadDeportivo
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots10
8Corners5
9Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots10
4On Target1
10Off Target4
5Blocked5
10Inside Box3
9Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
378Total Passes359
300Accurate Passes298
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta

Libertad Asuncion beat Deportivo Recoleta 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 30, 2026.

Goals: L. Melgarejo (86').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.