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Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion — League #252 2026

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
M. Fernandez 90' (OG)
M. Espinoza 34' (OG)
O. Acuna 51'
R. Villalba 26'
10/26/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 18Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta34%
×Draw24%
Libertad Asuncion43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
1.44
Libertad Asuncion
1.65

Libertad Asuncion creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.67
Libertad Asuncion
1.64

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.67
Libertad Asuncion
1.21

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
57%
Deportivo Recoleta or Libertad Asuncion
76%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
15%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
18%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
81%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
49%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
44%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.67 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.64 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
34%
level
24%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
43%

Libertad Asuncion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
R. VillalbaLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
7.7

Match Events

26'
R. Villalba↳ A. Cardozo Lucena
34'
M. EspinozaOwn goal
35'
Marcos Pereira
43'
Alejandro Silva
46'
O. Acuna← A. Fretes
51'
O. Acuna↳ R. Villalba
56'
Hugo Fernández
60'
M. Schupp← J. Espinola
69'
Diego Viera
72'
Ángel Cardozo Lucena
72'
M. Lopez← A. Silva
72'
H. Sandoval← W. Baez
72'
I. Franco← R. Villalba
81'
O. Cardozo← L. Melgarejo
82'
T. Fernandez← A. Cardozo Lucena
82'
M. Fernandez← H. Fernandez
86'
B. Medina← I. Piris
86'
A. Gonzalez← L. Gonzalez
90+4'
Néstor Giménez
90'
Martín Silva
90'
M. FernandezOwn goal

Possession

57%Deportivo

Shots

14Deportivo

Pass accuracy

53%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoLibertad
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots11
0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.00
5Corners5
9Fouls19
Shots
14Total Shots11
6On Target7
6Off Target2
2Blocked2
7Inside Box7
7Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
429Total Passes319
341Accurate Passes228
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls19
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta and Libertad Asuncion drew 2-2 in League #252 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: R. Villalba (26'), M. Espinoza (34' o.g.), O. Acuna (51'), M. Fernandez (90' o.g.).

Deportivo Recoleta controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Gregor in Asunción.