Libertad Asuncion 5–2 Deportivo Recoleta

Libertad Asuncion

FT

5 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Recoleta

R. Santa Cruz 90+2'

R. Lezcano 90' (pen)

L. Melgarejo 70', 49'

Ó. Cardozo 64' (pen)

W. Báez 45', 14'

2/2/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Libertad Asuncion47%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Recoleta28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.19

Libertad Asuncion

1.62

Deportivo Recoleta

1.19

Libertad Asuncion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.65

creates per match

1.50

0.87

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.65

Deportivo Recoleta

1.50

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.87

Deportivo Recoleta

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

72%

Libertad Asuncion or Deportivo Recoleta

75%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

53%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

80%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

48%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.65 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.50 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

47%

level

25%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

28%

Libertad Asuncion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

W. Báez↳ L. González

38'

A. Gonzalez

41'

L. MelgarejoGoal Disallowed - offside

45'

W. Báez↳ A. González

46'

G. Villamayor← L. Cabral

49'

L. Melgarejo↳ I. Franco

52'

R. LezcanoGoal Disallowed - handball

57'

F. Galeano← W. Báez

58'

J. Espínola← A. González

64'

Ó. CardozoPenalty

65'

R. Villalba← I. Franco

65'

H. Martínez← L. Sanabria

65'

R. Santa Cruz← Ó. Cardozo

70'

L. Melgarejo↳ R. Lezcano

72'

L. Melgarejo

79'

F. A. Echeguren Zarza

79'

A. Silva← L. Romero

79'

H. Sandoval← B. Ferreira

89'

G. A. Villamayor Achucarro

90'

H. Caballero← R. Lezcano

90'

Á. Lucena← Á. Campuzano

90'

R. LezcanoPenalty

90+2'

R. Santa Cruz

Libertad

Deportivo

1

Falcón

3

Cardozo

18

▼

Cabral

2

Echeguren

15

Medina

33

A

▼

González

32

López

5

▼

Romero

17

⚽2

▼

Báez

11

A

González

36

▼

12

5

2

17

4

10

⚽2

Melgarejo

6

▼

Campuzano

21

▼

Sanabria

18

A

▼

Franco

19

⚽A

▼

Lezcano

7

⚽

▼

Cardozo

Manager: S. Aquino

65'▲R. Villalba←▼I. Franco

65'▲H. Martínez←▼L. Sanabria

65'▲R. Santa Cruz←▼Ó. Cardozo

90'▲H. Caballero←▼R. Lezcano

90'▲Á. Lucena←▼Á. Campuzano

Libertad Asuncion substitutes

32Villalba22Martínez24Cruz26Caballero15Lucena27Jacquet23Villalba1Silva34Valle11Aguilar13Ibarra35Troche

Manager: J. González

46'▲G. Villamayor←▼L. Cabral

57'▲F. Galeano←▼W. Báez

58'▲J. Espínola←▼A. González

79'▲A. Silva←▼L. Romero

79'▲H. Sandoval←▼B. Ferreira

Deportivo Recoleta substitutes

25Villamayor8Galeano6Espínola20Silva29Sandoval27Domínguez4Pereira7Salcedo24Vidal31Schupp12Ferreira16Vera