Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 Libertad Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

C. Garay 7'

M. Fernández 88'

4/14/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 14Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta33%

×Draw27%

Libertad Asuncion40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RecoletaExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.36

Deportivo Recoleta

1.21

Libertad Asuncion

1.36

Libertad Asuncion creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.41

creates per match

1.45

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta

1.41

Libertad Asuncion

1.45

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta

1.27

Libertad Asuncion

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw

60%

Deportivo Recoleta or Libertad Asuncion

73%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

14%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

12%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

74%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

39%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

45%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.41 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.45 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

33%

level

27%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

40%

Libertad Asuncion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Garay

21'

I. Ramirez

46'

Ó. Cardozo← L. Sanabria

52'

L. Cardozo← A. González

52'

54'

65'

65'

65'

Á. Campuzano← M. Jacquet

65'

M. Fernández← I. Franco

71'

L. Mendoza

75'

M. Samudio← L. Mendoza

76'

B. Ferreira

88'

M. Fernández↳ Á. Campuzano

90+4'

A. Fretes← L. Melgarejo

90'

A. Alcaraz← G. Aguilar

Deportivo

Libertad

12

Morínigo

5

Viera

2

Ramírez

27

▼

Jacquet

4

Giménez

10

▼

Melgarejo

26

Caballero

21

▼

Sanabria

18

▼

Franco

22

Martínez

11

▼

Aguilar

1

Falcón

27

Domínguez

28

▼

Mendoza

15

Medina

4

Pereira

21

⚽

▼

Garay

33

▼

González

5

Romero

31

▼

Schupp

17

▼

Báez

11

González

Manager: J. González

52'▲L. Cardozo←▼A. González

52'▲I. Piris←▼M. Schupp

65'▲B. Ferreira←▼W. Báez

65'▲A. Silva←▼C. Garay

75'▲M. Samudio←▼L. Mendoza

Deportivo Recoleta substitutes

3Cardozo26Piris36Ferreira20Silva35Samudio40Bareiro8Galeano6Espínola39González24Vidal25Villamayor13Toledo

Manager: S. Aquino

46'▲Ó. Cardozo←▼L. Sanabria

65'▲Á. Campuzano←▼M. Jacquet

65'▲M. Fernández←▼I. Franco

90+4'▲A. Fretes←▼L. Melgarejo

90'▲A. Alcaraz←▼G. Aguilar

Libertad Asuncion substitutes

7Cardozo6Campuzano28Fernández14Fretes20Alcaraz32Villalba33Guiñazú1Silva24Cruz31Gutiérrez35Troche3Cáceres