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Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
L. Melgarejo 64'
F. Carrizo 43'
C. Dominguez 90'
F. Dominguez 81'
J. Morel 3'
3/21/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Libertad Asuncion40%
×Draw27%
Cerro Porteno34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.35
Cerro Porteno
1.22

Libertad Asuncion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.65
Cerro Porteno
1.57

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.87
Cerro Porteno
1.05

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
66%
Libertad Asuncion or Cerro Porteno
73%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
60%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
18%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
74%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
39%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
15%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
70%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
34%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
54%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.65 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cerro Porteno attack 1.57 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
40%
level
27%
Cerro Porteno scores more
34%

Libertad Asuncion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. CarrizoLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
8.5

Match Events

3'
J. Morel↳ M. Klimowicz
12'
Gastón Giménez
43'
F. Carrizo
45+2'
Jorge Morel
46'
C. Bobadilla← M. Klimowicz
58'
F. Dominguez← M. Perez
58'
F. Peralta← G. Gimenez
64'
L. Melgarejo↳ F. Carrizo
71'
P. Vegetti← J. Morel
71'
E. Paez← I. Aliseda
78'
I. Franco← F. Carrizo
78'
S. Delvalle← M. D. Espinoza Acosta
81'
F. Dominguez
83'
Álvaro Campuzano
83'
Fabrizio Peralta
85'
I. Ramirez← A. Benitez
85'
G. Aguilar← E. Villalba
88'
Santiago Delvalle
90'
H. Caballero← A. Molinas
90'
C. Dominguez↳ C. Bobadilla

Possession

50%Libertad

Shots

18Libertad

Pass accuracy

50%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadCerro
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots15
1.83Expected Goals (xG)1.24
6Corners4
5Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots15
8On Target7
5Off Target5
5Blocked3
9Inside Box9
9Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
357Total Passes355
279Accurate Passes275
78%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
5Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Cerro Porteno beat Libertad Asuncion 3-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 21, 2026.

Goals: J. Morel (3'), F. Carrizo (43'), L. Melgarejo (64'), F. Dominguez (81'), C. Dominguez (90').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.