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Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion — League #252 2026

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
G. Velazquez 2'
11/23/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 21Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cerro Porteno31%
×Draw27%
Libertad Asuncion42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.10
Libertad Asuncion
1.32

Libertad Asuncion creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.00
Libertad Asuncion
1.64

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
1.00
Libertad Asuncion
1.21

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
58%
Cerro Porteno or Libertad Asuncion
73%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
69%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
12%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
67%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
30%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
10%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
73%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
38%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
43%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.64 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
31%
level
27%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
42%

Libertad Asuncion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
G. VelazquezCerro PortenoCerro Porteno · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
G. Velazquez↳ B. Riveros
25'
Iván Franco
45+1'
Gastón Giménez
46'
I. Ramirez← R. Rojas
46'
O. Acuna← C. R. Santa
58'
R. Villalba← A. Campuzano
67'
L. Amarilla← G. Gimenez
67'
R. Piris← R. Gomez
70'
Cecilio Domínguez
72'
G. Aguilar← I. Franco
77'
A. G. Benitez← C. Dominguez
86'
F. Peralta← J. Iturbe
86'
B. Valdez← J. Morel
88'
O. Cardozo← L. Sanabria

Possession

34%Cerro

Shots

12Cerro

Pass accuracy

44%Cerro

Statistics

CerroLibertad
Overview
34%Possession66%
12Total Shots9
1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.44
6Corners7
14Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots9
2On Target1
9Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
34%Possession66%
208Total Passes409
134Accurate Passes330
64%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

League #252: Cerro Porteno 1–0 Libertad Asuncion

Cerro Porteno beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in League #252 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: G. Velazquez (2').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (66%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio General Pablo Rojas in Asuncion.