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Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno — League #252 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
H. Fernandez 59'
J. Torres 21'
8/31/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 10Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion28%
×Draw27%
Cerro Porteno45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.07
Cerro Porteno
1.42

Cerro Porteno creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.82
Cerro Porteno
1.67

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.18
Cerro Porteno
1.33

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
55%
Libertad Asuncion or Cerro Porteno
73%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
72%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
11%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
66%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
29%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
9%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
76%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
41%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
39%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cerro Porteno attack 1.67 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
28%
level
27%
Cerro Porteno scores more
45%

Cerro Porteno at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
I. AlisedaCerro PortenoCerro Porteno · M
7.5

Match Events

9'
Hugo Fernández
9'
Diego Viera
16'
Blás Riveros
21'
J. Torres↳ I. Aliseda
41'
Lucas Sanabria
46'
A. Cardozo Lucena← H. Caballero
52'
Jonathan Torres
59'
H. Fernandez
68'
H. Martinez← L. Sanabria
68'
M. Fernandez← H. Fernandez
68'
G. Aguayo← L. Amarilla
68'
W. Viera← C. Dominguez
73'
Ángel Cardozo Lucena
75'
P. Villalba← L. Melgarejo
75'
J. Recalde← G. Aguilar
79'
F. Peralta← J. Morel
85'
F. Noguera← L. A. Quintana Rodriguez
90+3'
Marcelo Fernandez

Possession

54%Libertad

Shots

11Libertad

Pass accuracy

50%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadCerro
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots8
0.47Expected Goals (xG)0.57
2Corners5
18Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
2On Target1
6Off Target6
3Blocked1
4Inside Box6
7Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
414Total Passes337
336Accurate Passes271
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls12
5Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno drew 1-1 in League #252 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Torres (21'), H. Fernandez (59').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.