Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2025

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
I. Aliseda 20'
G. Aguilar 64'
1/24/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cerro Porteno39%
×Draw29%
Libertad Asuncion33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.18
Libertad Asuncion
1.06

Cerro Porteno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.36
Libertad Asuncion
1.45

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
0.68
Libertad Asuncion
1.00

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
67%
Cerro Porteno or Libertad Asuncion
71%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
61%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
16%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
69%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
33%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
12%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
65%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
29%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
54%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.36 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.45 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
39%
level
29%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
33%

Cerro Porteno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. AguilarLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · F
7.7

Match Events

20'
I. Aliseda↳ J. Iturbe
23'
F. Dominguez
46'
P. Vegetti← F. Dominguez
46'
H. Martinez← A. Campuzano
46'
G. Aguilar← M. Fernandez
56'
M. Klimowicz← H. Mosquera
61'
F. Carrizo← H. Fernandez
64'
G. Aguilar↳ F. Carrizo
66'
H. Caballero
71'
L. A. Quintana Rodriguez← R. Gomez
71'
W. Viera← R. Piris
75'
G. Velazquez
81'
G. Aguayo← J. Iturbe
85'
R. Villalba← I. Franco
90+6'
N. Gimenez
90+1'
A. Fretes← L. Melgarejo

Possession

52%Cerro

Shots

9Cerro

Pass accuracy

51%Cerro

Statistics

CerroLibertad
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots13
3Corners6
15Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target7
3Off Target3
3Blocked3
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
431Total Passes378
357Accurate Passes306
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion

Cerro Porteno and Libertad Asuncion drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on January 24, 2026.

Goals: I. Aliseda (20'), G. Aguilar (64').

Cerro Porteno controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio General Pablo Rojas in Asuncion.